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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 28th, 2016–Feb 29th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

The amount of snow we get will determine the hazard rating going forward into the week. The winds are forecast to be moderate to strong in the alpine so if we receive the snow along with the forecast winds, wind slabs will be the main issue.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

It appears we will be receiving a few centimeters of snow tonight with more localized flurries tomorrow with a few sunny breaks.  Winds will be out the west 30km/h.  Freezing levels will be at valley bottom (1500 meters)

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche activity to report in the land of K'. However, to the north of us in Banff National Park and Jasper National Park, particularly on the east side of the continental divide, the snowpack has NOT improved significantly and snowpack tests still do not show any reason to be any more confident in the hazard decreasing any time soon. The January 6th facets/surface hoar layer is still showing sudden collapse and sudden planar results in many test pits. The layer is buried anywhere from 50-130 down from the surface.

Snowpack Summary

Some recent light flurries and winds in the alpine are creating soft slabs in the alpine lee zones. The recent snow has likely buried some recently formed temperature and sun crusts (Feb 27th) at treeline along with some small surface hoar 2-3mm up to about treeline (2100 meters) elevations on north aspects - keep this in mind as the week goes forward and more snow piles up on these layers especially if it's accompanied by moderate or stronger winds. The mid and basal snowpack continues to settle and tighten the Feb 11th and Jan 6th layers. The slightly cooler temperatures and cloud cover will have allowed for some recovery of the upper snowpack to strengthen after the very warm temperatures the past few days.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Localized convective flurries with the help of the wind will form thin wind slabs at ridge top features in the alpine and treeline.  If the suns pops out from the clouds, the solar radiation will make these new wind slabs more reactive to skiers.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Large triggers such as cornice failures and big solar heat input will make this layer re-emerge.  It is buried 60-80cm deep in the snowpack.  It is also possible to trigger this layer with lighter loads in isolated thin snowpack areas in the alpine.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>Avoid steep slopes below cornices.>Avoid thin, rocky or sparsely-treed slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 5