Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Avoid steep sun exposed slopes if snow becomes wet in more than the top few inches. Smaller loose wet avalanches usually precede large loose wet avalanches.
Detailed Forecast
Another dry, sunny and warm day is expected Thursday. Freezing levels should be in the 11,000 foot range with light winds. Amazing weather for January.
Loose wet avalanches while unlikely should be the main avalanche problem on Thursday in areas of the Olympics with sufficient snow cover. Remember that areas with shallow snow may become unstable first or may initiate from rocks or vegetation. Avoid steep sun exposed slopes when snow becomes wet in more than the top few inches.
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Snowpack Discussion
At Hurricane Ridge about 2 inches of rain was seen Sunday night to Monday.
This may have produced avalanches in some higher elevation areas of the Olympics with sufficient snow cover.
And now sunny unseasonably warm weather is being seen in the Olympics and Cascades mid-week. In the Olympics this should be causing draining, consolidation, stabiilzing and a resetting of the upper or entire snowpack.
NWAC observer Tyler Reid at Hurricane today reported that what snow was left there was wet and consolidated and consisted of rounds and melt forms.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 1