Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
An increasing avalanche danger should be limited mainly to above tree line areas in the Olympics on Thursday.
Detailed Forecast
Southwest flow will carry the first in a parade of mild wet fronts across the Northwest on Thursday. This will cause increasing winds and increasing moderate to heavy rain or snow by Thursday morning with rising snow levels. The snow level should rise to at least 6500 feet over the Olympics by Thursday afternoon.
The avalanche problem in the Olympics should be increasing but small loose wet snow avalanches above treeline involving snow from so far in February. The late January crust should make a good bed surface on many slopes. Small natural or triggered loose wet avalanches should be possible above treeline.
Little if any avalanche danger is expected Thursday near or below treeline in the Olympics due to little if any recent snow or no snow.
Snowpack Discussion
Mild weather with sunny days or minor rain was seen from about January 26th to about January 31st. This further depleted the meager snowpack at Hurricane.
Slightly wet weather from about February 1 through today produced an 1-2 inches of snow at Hurricane with more possible at higher elevations elsewhere in the Olympics.
The latest observations from Hurricane are from January 25th by pro-observer Katy Reid. She made a trip out to Mt. Angeles to one of the few above treeline areas accessible from Hurricane Ridge. She found snowdepths averaging 40-80 cm on N slopes with a few drifts above 1 meter. Snow cover was patchy only a few hundred feet below the ridge even on N facing slopes. This snow was well bonded consisting of melt forms and crusts and did not pose an avalanche problem.
There is currently not enough snow near and below treeline at Hurricane to cause an avalanche danger.Â
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Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1