Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy, isolated flurries with a trace of snow, light northwest wind with moderate gusts at ridgetop, alpine temperatures around -15 C. 

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light northwest wind, alpine temperatures around -13 C. 

THURSDAY: Mostly clear, light south wind with strong gusts in the afternoon, alpine temperatures around -11 C.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy, isolated flurries with a trace of snow, light west wind, alpine temperatures around -10 C. 

Since Monday, there have been several reports of small dry loose avalanches initiating from rocks on solar aspects or in steep terrain.

Over the weekend, observers reported large cornice falls and several small to large (up to size 2) natural and skier-triggered wind slab avalanches on westerly aspects above 2400 m. An explosive triggered avalanche reportedly stepped down to a deeper layer. 

Earlier in February, there were a few reports of large avalanches (size 2.5-3) on southeast aspects in the alpine, likely releasing on a layer of facets on a crust (see a photo here), and a large human-triggered avalanche (size 2.5) on surface hoar near Quartz Creek.

Winds have varied in strength and direction over the past week, loading cornices and forming shallow wind slabs at upper elevations that may be possible to trigger. Watch for these wind slabs in unusual places as complicated cross-loading and reverse-loading patterns are prevalent. Wind slabs may overlie weak, sugary, faceted snow, meaning that they could break wider than expected and will likely be slow to bond. 

In wind-sheltered areas, the upper snowpack is becoming soft and faceted with the cold temperatures. A weak layer that formed in late January is now 30-60 cm deep. In the northern Purcells this layer has been reported as a surface hoar layer at treeline and below treeline elevations, but a combination of facets on crusts could exist at all elevations throughout the region. 

The northern Purcells also have an older surface hoar layer that can still be found 60-100 cm deep at treeline. Additional weak layers may exist near the bottom of the snowpack and should be considered in steep rocky areas with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.