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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 8th, 2012–Feb 9th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect increased cloud on Thursday with trace amounts of snowfall. Very light snowfall should occur sporadically throughout friday and Saturday morning with possible clearing by Saturday afternoon. Winds are expected to be light and northwesterly until Saturday. Daytime freezing levels are forecast to remain at about 1300m (dropping to surface overnight) throughout the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

Windslab avalanches to size 1 were observed in the region on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Cooling has helped the snowpack to gain considerable strength since the warming on the weekend and a crusts have now developed on slopes that saw direct sun. On shaded aspects the upper snowpack is also well settled. The exception to this may be recently developed windslabs due to redistribution of surface snow on Monday and Tuesday. Below this sits a fairly well bonded mid-pack and riders are feeling increasingly confident in steeper terrain, particularly in areas with a deeper snowpack. In the south of the region, it is thought that the January 13th surface hoar (buried about 40cm down) may still be reactive. There are also basal facets at the ground which were reactive with the warming last weekend, especially in thin snowpack parts of the region. Snowpack depths at 2000m sit near 2m deep. If you're traveling around the mountains, it's a good time to take notice of what layers are developing (surface hoar/ crusts/surface hoar on crusts) that may become an issue once buried.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Recent avalanche activity indicates that deeply buried weak layers should still be on our radar. Although an avalanche would probably require a large trigger, they're still possible; especially in thin snowpack areas or on unsupported, rocky terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6

Cornices

Watch for tender cornices at ridge tops. They may be destructive by themselves and they may also trigger an avalanche on the slope below.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 6