Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - North East.
Very warm temperatures and sun are thawing the snowpack and creating dangerous and complex avalanche conditions. Large natural wet avalanches are possible on sun-exposed slopes during the warmest hours of the day. Time your travel to be off of steep slopes before the snow becomes wet and weak.
Discussion
Snow and Avalanche Discussion
We are experiencing a heat wave with very warm temperatures after an extended cold weather period. The snowpack is making a rapid transition from cold and dry, to a spring-like pack. Dry snow still exists on direct N facing upper elevations slopes. You will find wet snow on anything with a NE or NW tilt, and on E-S-W aspects. There is quite a bit of water moving through the snowpack, and that brings with it lots of uncertainty. Cornices are beginning to sag and break off. The most active period for wet activity has been observed to be in the late afternoon.
Skier-triggered wet loose slides (D1.5) were reported today in steep north facing terrain at 5400ft. A number of natural wet loose slides hit the closed Hwy 20 recently, one of which was quite large (D2.5). A widespread wet loose avalanche cycle has been ongoing for the past several days on a variety of aspects at all elevations. On the 17th, a D2.5 wet loose was observed that picked up soil and rocky debris and carried it down to the river in Last Chance. Over the weekend observers reported small to large loose wet avalanches on steep, sun-exposed slopes near Washington Pass and in the Twisp River drainage.
Snowpack Discussion
March 19, 2019Turning Up The Heat
My how the weather has changed. After nearly six weeks of below average temperatures, spring roared in like a lion. Temperatures March 17-19 sorrowed into the mid ’50s at many of our mountain weather stations. This has been a big change for our cold winter snowpack, and you can see the effects of several days of warm temperatures in the mountains.
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Temperatures from selected weather stations for the past week. Notice the long stretch of above freezing temps over the last few days. (Dates March 12-19, 2019)
The Loose Wet Avalanche Cycle
A prolonged small loose wet avalanche cycle occurred in some areas March 14-16, Â as daytime temperatures crept above freezing. Recent snow from a storm on March 11-12 fueled these generally small avalanches, while thin clouds minimized the impact of the warming trend. Due to their small size and specific locations, the avalanche danger stayed moderate. This initial cycle played out in different areas at different times.
On Sunday, we noticed a marked shift. Poor overnight refreezes, continued warming temperatures, and clear skies finally tipped the balance. Loose wet avalanches on Sunday afternoon began to grow larger and run farther in some locations. Avalanche conditions became dangerous. Subsequent similar days allowed this cycle to impact higher elevation terrain and move onto more shaded aspects. As of Tuesday, we’re still very much in the middle of this cycle.
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Loose wet slides hit the groomed road near Blewett Pass. Photo: Matt Primomo
Why Wet Slabs? And Why Now?
Here in the NW we're used to seeing wet slabs associated with rain on snow events, but we don’t always see them as part of a spring shedding cycle. So, what’s different this year?
As the loose wet avalanche cycle ratcheted up a notch Sunday afternoon, this also began to indicate that more water was moving in the snowpack. Over February and early March, several winter storms formed a cold and layered mid-winter snowpack. How would these old layers respond to the influx of water? This is one of the more difficult questions in avalanche forecasting. The first indications came over March 16 and 17 with a few reports of isolated wet slab avalanches. Would these be the precursors to a more widespread cycle? Well, we're still waiting to see. We know there have been several days now of completely above freezing temperatures and the snowpack is still cold and layered. With a lot of uncertainty about the possibility of wet slabs, we’re approaching any avalanche terrain with a high degree of suspicion and dialing back when, where, and how we travel.
A wet slab from Mt St Helens, Sunday, March 17, 2019. Photo: NWAC public observation page.
Variability in Time and Space
So what does this all mean? Well, two things come to mind. 1: You may experience a wide variety of conditions depending on where you travel. Changes in aspect, elevation, and feature can lead to changes in sun exposure, overnight freezing, and timing of the thaw. Other than steep due north aspects, the sun and temperature appear to be finding every snow surface. Conditions will change rapidly during the day. Don’t expect slopes you travel on in the morning to be the same by mid-day. That leads us to point 2. Be informed, monitor conditions, and prepare to respond to changing conditions. Use the Weather and Avalanche Forecast to make sure you are up to date on what we think of the current and forecasted conditions. As you travel, make observations. How is the snow responding to the heat, sun, etc? Don’t forget to think about the slopes above your head. Expect conditions to change quickly, and plan for travel options that allow you to avoid potentially dangerous overhead slopes.
A Shout Out to Low Elevation Snowpacks
Cold temperatures in February built deep low elevation snowpacks, especially east of the Cascades. This snowpack has been very weak. As it becomes warm and wet, you may see odd, full depth avalanches occur. Don’t let your low elevation fool you. Just because it’s not a big mountain avalanche path doesn’t mean it can’t slide.
Full depth slabs next to full depth loose wet avalanches. Swakane Canyon near Wenatchee. Photo: Matt Primomo
When Will This End?
Transitions like this take time. Don’t be in a rush. Until the snowpack undergoes a solid refreeze, continue to be leery of avalanche terrain. We’ll keep monitoring the snow and the weather to keep you informed.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
The wet loose avalanche cycle has been prolonged and slow to run its course. Many of these avalanches have been small, but several notable avalanches have grown large, entrained significant amounts of snow, and run long distances. Another day of heat will allow more slopes, on different aspects, and at higher elevations to become wet and avalanche. With another weak, overnight freeze in the forecast, expect snow surfaces to lose strength quickly on Thursday. When you find wet surface snow, avoid traveling around steep open slopes and put a good buffer of terrain between you and the runout zones of large avalanche paths.
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wet Slabs
Steep sun-exposed slopes are weak and dangerous. There are a few layers that could become reactive as meltwater percolates through the snowpack. Of most concern are facets above a thin crust that were buried in early February. As each day warms with superficial overnight refreezes, unpredictable and large avalanches may occur. The poor snowpack structure with well-defined facets is not expected to respond well to this rapid warm up.
You can check how water is traveling through the snowpack by digging and looking for moist layers of snow. As day-time temperatures warm and any surface crust breaks down, stay off of and out from under sun-exposed avalanche start zones, rocky alpine walls, unsupported slopes, and terrain over 30 degrees where meltwater may be changing deeper weak layers.
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slab avalanches can be very destructive.
Avoid terrain where and when you suspect Wet Slab avalanche activity. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty
A Wet Slab avalanche. In this avalanche, the meltwater pooled above a dusty layer of snow. Note all the smaller wet loose avalanches to either side.
Wet slabs occur when there is liquid water in the snowpack, and can release during the first few days of a warming period. Travel early in the day and avoiding avalanche paths when you see pinwheels, roller balls, loose wet avalanches, and during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1