Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries and possible accumulations of 2-5 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperatures drop to -4 C.SATURDAY: Scattered flurries with 5-20 cm of snow, light southwest wind, alpine temperatures around -4 C.SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -1 C.MONDAY: Sunny, light northeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -1 C.

On Monday, search and rescue responded to an avalanche in the Mount Seymour backcountry, which resulted in a fatality (see here for incident report). The avalanche occurred on a steep feature at treeline elevation. Avalanche professionals involved in the rescue indicated wide propagation consistent with a persistent slab problem. The crown depth was variable - 40 to 100 cm, indicating there was also wind loading in that area.Another persistent slab avalanche was reported on Wednesday (see MIN report here), and occurred naturally on a south-facing feature at treeline elevation.A widespread avalanche cycle occurred a week ago. These large avalanches (up to size 2.5) showed impressive propagation, with some being triggered remotely (from a distance) and in some occasions stepping down to the crust and releasing persistent slab avalanches.

Roughly 20 cm of new snow sits above a mix of sun crusts and possibly some weak faceted snow and surface hoar. A widespread crust layer is buried 50-100 cm deep with weak snow above it that has produced large natural and human-triggered avalanche over the past week. These videos from Wednesday clearly demonstrate how easy it is to trigger this weak layer (here and here). The reactivity of this layer appears to be worse in the south of the region (i.e. the North Shore Mountains) since this part of the region has seen more snow and it has consolidated into more of a slab. Unusually for this region, we expect this layer to remain reactive for some time into the future. The lower snowpack is settled and strong.