Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Stevens Pass.
Recent blowing snow and strong winds have maintained heightened avalanche danger at upper elevations. Steer around wind drifted features near and above treeline and minimize your exposure to large steep slopes and avalanche paths. Only expose one group member at a time to slopes steeper than 35 degrees and identify safer areas to stop and regroup.
Snowpack Discussion
Regional Synopsis: December 19, 2018
Why has the avalanche danger been so high for so long? Two reasons: A very active and wet weather pattern combined with a widespread persistent weak layer.
For perspective, the approximate snow totals from 12/9-12/19 are:
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Mt Baker: 102â
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Washington Pass: 55â
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Stevens Pass: 76â mid-mountain
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Snoqualmie Pass: 68â mid-mountain
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Crystal Mountain 70â Green Valley
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Paradise: 78â
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Mt Hood Meadows: 44â mid-mountain
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Olympics: 48â
In many areas, a layer of buried surface hoar and/or weak sugary facets was buried on December 9th. This layer has been the cause of numerous natural, explosive, and skier triggered avalanches. As this layer gets deeper it gets harder to assess. In short, the scenario is tricky and getting more dangerous by the day.
Higher snowfall totals along the Hwy 542 corridor/Mt Baker area have driven several avalanche cycles during this period. Loading from recent storms has been more incremental to the east and south of the Mt. Baker area, so we have not yet experienced a widespread cycle in other areas.
When will we reach the breaking point? Itâs hard to say. What we do know is we have a deep weak layer, reports of very large explosives triggered slides at Mission Ridge and Crystal Mountain, and more storms on the way.
Be patient and continue to stick to lower angle slopes with nothing above you. Â This is a good time to avoid areas where avalanches can start, run, and stop.
Weâd like to thank all of you who have sent NWAC your observations. If you are out in the mountains, let us know what you see.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
You could trigger avalanches in the eastern portion of the zone and on steep, shaded slopes facing west through north through east. While deep persistent slabs are generally difficult to trigger, they are also hard to predict. They will give few warning signs before releasing. If you travel over the wrong spot, you could trigger a very large and dangerous avalanche. The best way to reduce the risk of this is a low likelihood, high consequence scenario is to minimize your exposure to terrain capable of producing large avalanches:
-Limit the amount of time you spend on or near slopes 35 degrees and steeper.
-Put an extra buffer of terrain between where you travel and where avalanches could start.
-Stay well out from under large avalanche paths and identify safer areas to stop and regroup.
Release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer, deep in the snowpack or near the ground. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage. They commonly develop when Persistent Slabs become more deeply buried over time.
Deep Persistent Slabs avalanches can be destructive and deadly events that can take months to stabilize. You can trigger them from well down in the avalanche path, and after dozens of tracks have crossed the slope.
A snowboarder triggered this Deep Persistent Slab near treeline, well down in the path.
Deep, persistent slabs are destructive and deadly events that can take months to stabilize. You can triggered them from well down in the avalanche path, and after dozens of tracks have crossed the slope. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty, potentially for the remainder of the season.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2 - 2
Wind Slabs
Steer around wind loaded features and areas where the snow deep and thickly pillowed on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Use caution on leeward slopes just below ridges.
Avalanches will be easier to trigger as you climb higher in the mountains. Strong wind and new snow from the past 3 days have formed slabs near and above treeline. If you trigger an avalanche in wind drifted snow, dig into deeper layers, resulting in a very large and dangerous deep persistent slab.
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1