Avalanche Forecast

A weak storm system is expected to reach the coast Monday overnight.  2-5cm of snowfall is forecast for Tuesday.  Strong southerly winds are expected in the alpine with afternoon freezing levels around 1300m.  Light snowfall may continue Tuesday overnight and should be done by Wednesday morning.  A mix of sun and cloud is forecast for Wednesday and Thursday with light alpine winds and afternoon freezing levels around 1400-1500m. 

On Sunday afternoon, loose wet avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported in the far north of the region.  With the arrival of spring, field observations and data have become very limited in the region. A lack of avalanche reports does not mean avalanches are not occurring.  On Tuesday, thin new wind slabs may form in the alpine. Cornices have been weak recently and may fail naturally with storm loading. Loose wet avalanches are possible at lower elevations that see rainfall.

Melt-freeze conditions are expected to be widespread except possibly on high elevation north aspects. Surface crusts are forming overnight and breaking down during the day. The snowpack's strength is directly related to the thickness and strength of these crusts. Where there are layers in the snowpack, they are generally bonding. A widespread crust/facet layer from early February and depth hoar at the bottom of the snowpack (primarily in northerly & inland areas) are dormant. Strong, thick crusts in the upper parts of the snowpack have limited the reactivity of these old layers; however, they could potentially once again produce isolated yet large avalanches with prolonged periods of warming.