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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 16th, 2016–Apr 17th, 2016
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be below threshold
Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be below threshold
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Glacier.

Timing is everything in the spring. The Winter Permit System is no longer in effect so get an early start! Warm temps will prevent strong overnight crust recoveries. Set realistic objectives and be prepared to turn back if the crust is breaking down.

Weather Forecast

We may see a bit of connectivity today, but mostly clear skies are expected with an alpine high of 5'C. Rapid warming is forecast for Sun and Mon with freezing levels rising to well over mountaintop and highs of 15'C. Temps are not expected to fall below freezing overnight, resulting in a weak (if any) overnight crust recovery.

Snowpack Summary

The melt-freeze crust on the surface is over 10cm thick, with the top ~5cm breaking down to "corn" by early afternoon. The crust will become weaker with forecast warm overnight temps. Below this crust is ~60cm of weak, moist snow. On steep, N'ly aspects above ~2300m the snow remains dry. At low elevations the snow is rapidly receding.

Avalanche Summary

There has been very little avalanche activity lately, but sporadic large avalanches continue to occur. On Tuesday, a size 3 wet slab on the SW face of Cheops Mountain at about 2500 meters. Glide-cracks are opening up on many slopes and can fail unpredictably. Yesterday NW of the park a size 3 deep persistent slab avalanche occurred on a SE aspect.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

A strong surface crust exists and with good timing spring "corn" skiing can be had when the surface starts to break down. However, if the crust has completely broken down loose wet avalanches will be easy to trigger and can entrain significant mass.
Start and finish early before the surface crusts melt.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wet Slabs

Sporadic large and destructive wet slab avalanches have been observed recently. High freezing levels and strong solar radiation are likely triggers, and avalanche activity is expected to increase over the weekend.
Avoid exposure to overhead slopes with Glide Cracks. Avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Use extra caution on solar slopes, or if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3