Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 3rd, 2014–Dec 4th, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Continue to be cautious and conservative in your terrain selection. Conditions vary and touchy layers exist in many areas.

Weather Forecast

Today is forecast to be mostly clear but with a few flurries, light to moderate NW winds at ridgetop, and a high of -8'C. Thursday will be similar but slightly warmer with temps to -5'C. By Friday a moist and warm system will bring clouds and flurries. ~6cm of snow is forecast with freezing levels around 1500m.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps have tightened up the wet slab for now but are also weakening the snowpack over time. Snowpack tests on two touchy weak layers (a variety of surface hoar, crusts and facets) buried down ~100 and ~130cm continue to indicate the may be triggered by skiers and produce very large avalanches. A hard rain crust exists below ~1600m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed over the past 3 days. Prior to the cold snap, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred. Large avalanches, with wide propagations, demonstrated the potential of buried weak layers. Some areas have not yet avalanched, for example the Frequent Flyer path up the Connaught Drainage.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers buried down ~1m and ~1.3m are cause for concern. They are capable of producing very large avalanches and may be triggered by skiers. As temperatures warm over the next few days the likelihood of triggering will increase.

Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche - even on low angle terrain.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3