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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 25th, 2015–Mar 26th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

The upper snowpack is touchy and complex. Layers in the top meter are sensitive to human triggering. Avalanche danger is expected to rise as another warm, wet and windy storm moves into the region late today.

Weather Forecast

Flurries have started as a warm storm approaches. By thurs morning we will see 5-10cm with freezing levels to 1800m and gusty SW winds. On Thursday freezing levels will rise to 2800m with rain/flurries. Alpine temps are forecast to reach +4'C with moderate SW winds. Friday will be similar; the low is +1'C with continued showers and winds to 75km/h.

Snowpack Summary

50cm of storm snow above 1800m and is settling into a slab. Below the storm slab is a complex mix of crusts, facetted snow and surface hoar which have been reactive to skier triggering. A facetted layer sitting on a crust down ~65cm and is easily triggered at treeline. Tests on this layer indicate that if triggered avalanches can propagate widely.

Avalanche Summary

Conditions are touchy at treeline. Convex rolls are reactive to ski cuts, triggering 65cm deep slabs. Loose snow sluffing off cliffs has been triggering similar slabs. Yesterday strong solar in the afternoon triggered a size 2 in "Frequent Flyer" up Connaught, which ran into the avalanche fan stopping above the uptrack.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers down 50-100cm have been triggered recently by light loads, such as skiers or sluffing off of cliffs. These layers have been remotely triggered, and have the tendency to propagate widely.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Storm Slabs

Recent storm snow is settling into a slab and is bonding poorly where it overlies a crust. SW winds are increasing and are creating pockets of windslab at ridgetop. As freezing levels rise the slab may become more reactive.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2