Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

FRIDAY NIGHT: 2-5 cm. snow, strong west wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

SATURDAY: 2-5 cm snow, moderate west wind, alpine temperature -3 C.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, light southeast wind, alpine temperature -5 C.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light west wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

Some very large and destructive avalanches have been sporadically running on deeply buried weak layers near the bottom of the snowpack, predominantly on north through east aspects in the alpine. On Tuesday, a natural size 2.5 was observed. It is suspected to have started as a wind slab in a thin rocky area before stepping down. On Monday, two deep persistent slab avalanches size 2-3 were triggered from thin snowpack areas by very large loads pushed by snowcats. 

10 cm. of new snow and strong southwesterly winds have redistributed the new snow in exposed alpine and treeline areas, over extensively wind affected old surfaces. In sheltered areas, the new snow falls on a layer of surface hoar, and onto a sun crust on solar aspects.

An older, patchy layer of small surface hoar crystals a sun crust both from early February may still exist under previous storm snow, 30-60 cm deep.

A couple of weak layers that formed in January are burried in close proximity to one another 80-140 cm below the surface and continue to give hard results in snowpack tests. Below, an early season crust lurks at the base of the snowpack. Some large avalanches have been triggered on these layers, usually during periods of rapid loading by new snow or wind and by large loads or from thin, rocky areas.

• Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
• Approach steep, open and/or sparsely treed slopes cautiously.
• Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.