Avalanche Forecast

Moderate snowfall continues as temperatures drop. Enjoy the cold, dry, holiday pow!

Friday Night: Overcast. 0-10 cm of snow expected. Light southwest winds. Freezing level falling to between 250m and 0 m.

Saturday: Overcast. 10-15 cm of low density snow expected. Moderate southwest winds trending to strong south at higher elevations. Freezing level falls to sea level. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with possible sun in the afternoon. 2-4 cm of snow expected. Light to moderate southeast winds. Temperature @ 1500 m dropping to around -15 C.

Monday: Clear overnight, mostly cloudy through the day. Possible trace of snow expected. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Temperature @ 1500 m around -15 C.

Here is a great Mountain Information Network (MIN) post from Friday morning in the Mt. Seymour area. It reported the overnight snow sliding in steeper areas on a rain crust from Thursday. As more snow fell through the day and overnight, the storm slabs may get bigger and could avalanche on slopes that are less steep.

This MIN post, and this one, from later in the day, do seem to follow that trend.

On Wednesday in the North Shore Mountains, a few natural and skier triggered wet loose avalanches were reported to size 1, running on a crust from December 21.

20-30 cm of low density snow overlies 20-40 cm of snow that fell Tuesday and Wednesday with generally strong southwest winds. Expect the wind transported snow to be deeper and more reactive on leeward slopes.

This Mountain Information Network (MIN) post from near Mt. Seymour shows that snowfall amounts could be variable across the region. 

The storm snow sits on a variety of snow surfaces: variable wind slabs and hard wind-scoured surfaces in terrain exposed to the wind, and preserved powder and possible surface hoar (mostly reported in the north of the region) in sheltered areas. 

In the north of the region, a concerning layer of facets (sugary snow) can be found down 100-200cm over a crust that formed in early December. This layer seems to have become dormant, but was most recently reactive in thinner snowpack areas near ridge tops, where the facets are more developed and where the crust layers are more accessible to the weight of a person or machine. This problem is particularly hard to predict and tricky to manage. Get more details and photos in our forecaster blog. 

• Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
• Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.
• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
• Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
• Even a small avalanche can be harmful if it pushes you into an obstacle or a terrain trap.