Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue as 4 feet of snow was rapidly loaded between Thursday and Saturday. Triggering an avalanche is likely on this recent snow that lies above a variety of weak and unstable surfaces. Avoid steep slopes, especially wind affected areas, and use cautious route finding while traveling in avalanche terrain as the snowpack adjusts to the heavy load of recent snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    The zone received around 4 feet of snow between Thursday and Saturday, which has settled closer to 3 feet. Wind slab depths could be up to 4 feet. Periods of moderate westerly winds ranging NW to SW have deposited snow creating the potential to find larger, more reactive slabs on leeward slopes. Today W/NW winds will continue 10-15mph with gusts to 25. 

    Recent snow could still be reactive in the low elevations, regardless of wind influence. Cold temperatures are helping to decrease the sensitivity of these slabs across all elevations. But this rapid loading event fell on a variety of surfaces including facets, surface hoar, and crusts creating weak layers. Lots of observations of unstable conditions with D2 avalanches including: 25 Short, Wimpys, Broken Branch, South of Teton Village. 

    (1/29/2023)

    Obvious sign of instability. Large cracking on Wimpys while setting the skintrack

    Photo: Drinkard

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    A weak layer of snow highlighted as the Nov 27 crust/facet combo is buried near the base of the snowpack. The large spatial distribution in snow depth makes the sensitivity of this layer tricky to identify. Areas with the highest likelihood of triggering this layer are on shallow southerly aspects above 8000’ which were previously wind scoured. 

    Recent loading of 3.8 inches of snow water equivalent has added additional stress to this weak layer. No deep slab natural activity has been observed, but the unlikely possibility of finding the trigger point is still haunting our decision making. Triggering an avalanche on the new/old snow interface could step down to these persistent layers creating a very large avalanche. Use conservative decision making in the specified terrain as this deeply buried layer adjusts to the new heavy load of snow. 

Avalanche Discussion

Time plays a critical role in avalanche conditions, especially the time it takes for snow to stabilize after a storm. You may very well be asking yourself this question in light of the large amount of snow that fell recently.  Rapid loading events of this scale are uncommon and demand respect. Don't let the decreased reactivity of storm snow created by cold temperatures and settlement cloud your judgment too much. This recent snow fell on a variety of weak surfaces, with high uncertainty as to how this interface will bond over time. Human triggered avalanches are likely and the consequence of doing so on this new/old snow interface could be severe. Enjoy the fresh snow in safe terrain while the snowpack adjusts to the heavy load. Powder riding conditions are improving as this new snow becomes more supportable and right side up. Play it safe and give the snowpack a little time to relax and calm down.

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