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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2015–Mar 24th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Limited snow will limit the avalanche danger in most areas of the Olympics on Tuesday. But the cool somewhat snowy weather may bring a variety of changeable March snow and avalanche conditions above treeline.

Detailed Forecast

Some light snow showers may be seen in the Olympics on Tuesday with fairly snow levels.

The cool somewhat snowy weather may bring a variety of changeable March snow and avalanche conditions.

We are past the equinox and the sun is rapidly getting stronger and new snow will be susceptible to sun effects. Watch for wet snow deeper than a few inches or snowballing or natural loose wet avalanches by Tuesday midday on solar slopes. This should be mainly ATL in the Olympics where there might be significant recent snow.

Previous wind slab may linger on lee slopes mainly ATL where there is significant snow. Use extra caution near slope convexities where storm or wind slab avalanches are more likely to be triggered.

Most areas below treeline in the Olympics do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.

Snowpack Discussion

The 16-18 inches of storm snow that fell a week ago has all but melted at Hurricane Ridge. The total snow depth at the NWAC weather station has settled or melted and lost 10 inches over the past week.

Just a few inches of new snow accumulated late last week and over the weekend. Winds may have built some small cornices along ridges and transported snow to build some small wind slabs on lee slopes.

A weak upper short wave and unstable air mass is moving over the Northwest on Monday. This should slightly favor the Cascade volcanoes for snow showers. Another rapidly moving shortwave will carry a surface low across the north Oregon Cascades Monday night. This should renew snow showers Monday night in the south Cascades with possible overnight stormy conditions at Mt Hood. So the main weather action is mostly bypassing the Olympics on Monday and Monday night.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.