Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Nov 22 – 23, 2017Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 9 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Hazard will be increasing the next few days with warm temperatures, rain, snow at higher elevations, and strong winds. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3
    Expect incoming snow to overload the Halloween crust.  This may produce our first cycle of large avalanches this season.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Total new snow accumulations may reach 60cm by Friday.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    The distribution of this problem will be tied to the freezing levels.  Rainfall may occur up into the alpine in the coming days.

Weather Forecast

A strong moist southwest flow will drive the weather for the next few days.Tonight: 16cm of snow, with alpine lows of -4, and mod-strong SW windWednesday: 9cm of snow, alpine highs of +1, freezing level 2400m, and mod-extreme SW windThursday: 26cm of snow, alpine highs of +1 and lows of -5, freezing level 2200m, mod-extreme SW wind

Snowpack Summary

Incoming new snow, accompanied by strong winds and warm temps, will quickly form fresh slabs.  These will fall on top of the 20-60cm of snow already burying the Oct 31 crust, which is a likely failure plane for persistent slab avalanches. 

Avalanche Summary

A patrol on Monday's observed numerous fresh size 2's mainly at treeline but also a few noted in lower alpine locations. They ranged from 35-45 degrees, 100m wide, 20-40cm deep, and some ran down in to the runouts of larger avalanche paths. No patrol occurred on Tuesday.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

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