Hazard will be increasing the next few days with warm temperatures, rain, snow at higher elevations, and strong winds.
Weather Forecast
A strong moist southwest flow will drive the weather for the next few days.Tonight: 16cm of snow, with alpine lows of -4, and mod-strong SW windWednesday: 9cm of snow, alpine highs of +1, freezing level 2400m, and mod-extreme SW windThursday: 26cm of snow, alpine highs of +1 and lows of -5, freezing level 2200m, mod-extreme SW wind
Snowpack Summary
Incoming new snow, accompanied by strong winds and warm temps, will quickly form fresh slabs. These will fall on top of the 20-60cm of snow already burying the Oct 31 crust, which is a likely failure plane for persistent slab avalanches.
Avalanche Summary
A patrol on Monday's observed numerous fresh size 2's mainly at treeline but also a few noted in lower alpine locations. They ranged from 35-45 degrees, 100m wide, 20-40cm deep, and some ran down in to the runouts of larger avalanche paths. No patrol occurred on Tuesday.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.