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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 26th, 2015–Jan 27th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Little Yoho.

One more day of warm temperatures on Tuesday before we get back to more seasonal, below freezing temperatures. Avoid avalanche terrain again on Tuesday, but expect conditions to improve dramatically by Thursday when we hit -12 at treeline.

Weather Forecast

Slowly, ever so slowly, the temperatures are starting to fall. Overnight and Tuesday expect freezing levels to drop below treeline with lows of -4 in some areas. No precipitation is expected through the remainder of the week as the slow cooling continues. By Thursday temperatures are expected to hit -12, which should lock the snowpack down.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures are having a dramatic effect on the snowpack. Below 2000m the snowpack is wet and isothermal in many areas, particularly on sun exposed terrain and around rocks. Above 2000m moist snow has been blown to smithereens by yesterdays wind and deep windslabs can be expected in alpine areas with the Dec 18 surface hoar still a concern.

Avalanche Summary

The peak of the current avalanche cycle occurred on Sunday, when dozens of large natural avalanches were observed, including the path beside the Emerald Lake Slide Path.  The gullies in Field all produced wet avalanches running over the ice climbs.

Confidence

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.