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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 9th, 2015–Dec 10th, 2015

Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

The places you are going to find the best riding conditions in the wake of the storm are probably the same places where the danger from a layer of buried surface hoar is greatest.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: light snowfall, and moderate easterly winds, freezing levels at the valley floor. FRIDAY: flurries, light to moderate southerly winds, freezing levels at the valley floor. SATURDAY: There is some uncertainty in the forecast track of the storm that should hit the coast on Saturday. Some models have it coming in further north which could bring snow to the NW Inland others have it missing the region entirely.

Avalanche Summary

It sounds like there were touchy conditions out there over the weekend. Reports of some large skier triggered and skier controlled avalanches from tree-line suggest that the load on the recently buried surface hoar is probably at a critical level.

Snowpack Summary

By my reckoning up to 60cm of new snow has fallen since the weekend with the area around Smithers receiving the greatest amounts. Unfortunately, heavy rain fell below 1500m and probably formed a rain crust that can be found just below the surface at lower elevations. At higher elevations the new snow sits on a layer of surface hoar, which has the potential for remote triggering, wide propagations and prolonged sensitivity to triggers. It has been reported lurking in most sheltered areas at tree-line and below, although I suspect that it may exist well into the alpine.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.