Regions
Northwest Inland.
The March 9th persistent weakness is very sensitive to human triggering and is producing frighteningly large avalanches. Stay conservative in your approach to the mountains this weekend.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: Fine weather for the weekend. A weak system will bring flurries for Monday.Saturday and Sunday: Clear and sunny. Daytime alpine temperatuers around -5, but feeling warmer in the sun. Light winds.Monday: Cloudy with flurries. Afternoon freezing level rising to 1900 m. Southeast winds to 30 km/h.
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, human-triggered avalanches were reported running on a the March 9th surface hoar layer on north and northwest aspects. Natural avalanches up to size 2 were also observed on lee slopes below steep ridge lines. On Wednesday, there was a natural cycle to size 3. Skiers were remote triggering large destructive avalanches (size 2.5) from as far as 800m away. It has been an active recent period, with numerous avalanches reported to have failed on the March 9th layer over the past week. The trend is likely to continue through the weekend.
Snowpack Summary
35 - 65 cm of recent snow rests on a variety of old snow surfaces, including crusts, previous wind slabs and surface hoar (buried March 9th). Warmer temperatures and recent winds have set this new snow into a reactive slab. The March 9th surface hoar layer is reported to be very touchy. The surface hoar may not exist, or be reactive, in every drainage. Where it does exist, it appears to be present at all elevations, but is likely to pose the biggest threat in the alpine. Recent reports indicate it has been more reactive on south through west aspects, but I wouldn't necessarily trust steep north or east facing slopes at this time either. I suspect cornices have become well-developed and could easily become unstable during periods of warm weather or on slopes receiving direct sun. The mid snowpack is generally well settled and strong.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.