Regions
Vancouver Island.
Confidence
Moderate - uncertain of forecast precipitation amounts.
Travel & Terrain Advice
Seek low angle terrain and areas sheltered from the wind. Ensure you a wide berth when travelling either above or below cornices. Continued diligence when managing travel in avalanche terrain, small loose dry snow avalanches may start small but will quickly gain enough mass to push a traveler into terrain traps below.
Avalanche Summary
The February 14th melt freeze crust located on all aspects and elevation continues to provide a bed surface for wind slab avalanches to slide on. This smooth and very strong crust will over the coming forecast period provide a sliding surface for future wind slab avalanches. Wide spread and touchy to human triggers small size one wind slab avalanches have been reported. Predominately these wind slabs are found at ridge top and within open tree line terrain. Isolated wind slabs on north aspects have been accidentally skier triggered, again these avalanches were small, size one.
Snowpack Summary
Light and low density new snow of 15 cm continues to bond poorly to the valentines day melt freeze crust. In protected lee areas, 30 plus centimeters sits on this crust. Areas exposed to the wind such as ridge top at tree line and the alpine, the melt freeze crust is exposed and at the surface. The well establish crust provides a think and protective bridge above the snow below. The mid and lower snow pack remain well settled and strong.
Snowpack Details
Surface: New low density snow. Upper: Melt freeze crust from 30 to 90 cm thick. Mid: Well settled. Lower: Well settled.
Past Weather
Cool conditions persisted with overnight lows below minus 10 and up to 15 cm of new snowfall. Winds continued from the north west with variable velocity ranging from light to strong.
Weather Forecast
A series of winter storms will descend upon the region from the north, bringing to the area cool temperatures wind and continued snow fall. Expected on western and interior zones up to a possible 50 centimeters of new snowfall over the 72 hour period with the eastern side of the island expecting half that amount. Winds will initially begin from the south west, becoming north and north west and will continue through the entire forecast period. Friday: 10 to 15 cm new snowfall. Temperatures -5 overnight rising to -2 mid day, winds strong north west. Freezing level 0 m rising to 900 m mid day. Saturday: 10 to 15 cm new snowfall. Temperatures -6 overnight rising to near 0 by mid day, winds moderate west. Freezing level 0 m rising to 700 m mid day. Sunday: 15 to 30 cm new snowfall. temperatures -5 rising to -2 mid day, winds light to moderate north west. Freezing level 250 m rising to 500 m mid day.
Problems
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.