Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Feb 15, 2018Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow sits above a hard crust.  Be careful around terrain traps such as cliffs, trees, or gullies where a small avalanche could have severe consequences.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Large cornices have formed along ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect. Give them a wide berth from above and below.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2
    15-25 cm of fresh snow sits above a hard rain crust that extends well into the alpine. It may take time for the new snow to bond to the crust.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Increasing cloud with flurries starting in the evening, moderate west wind, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.FRIDAY: 5-10 cm of new snow by the morning then clearing throughout the day, moderate northwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1000 m with alpine high temperatures around -2 C.SATURDAY: Heavy snow starting Friday night with 20-40 cm possible by the end of the day, strong west wind, freezing level climbing to 900 m with alpine high temperatures around -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

The new snow was reactive above the crust on Wednesday, including a report of a small avalanche on a steep north-facing convex roll. See here for photo. On Saturday, a cornice collapse was the likely cause of a size 2 avalanche on a north facing slope near the West Lion. See here for images and more details. Looking ahead, the storm slabs may remain reactive, so be suspicious of the bond between the new snow and crust.

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of storm snow sits above a hard rain crust at most elevations and above firm wind affected snow in the high alpine. It will take time for the new snow to form a solid bond with these varied surfaces - especially the rain crust. The average snowpack depth at treeline is 300 cm of well settled snow with no significant layers of concern.

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