Regions
Northwest Inland.
Winter continues to hang on at higher elevations. Expect loose wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes in the afternoon.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday
Weather Forecast
Overnight: 3-5 cm of new snow with moderate southwest winds and freezing down to 500 metres. Thursday: Mostly cloudy with moderate west winds and daytime freezing up to 1500 metres. Friday: Mostly sunny with light winds and daytime freezing up to 1800 metres. Saturday: Overcast with strong southeast winds and daytime freezing up to 1800 metres.
Avalanche Summary
A MIN report from Monday describes a size 2.5 wet slab from the west aspect of Elliot peak at 1900 metres elevation. It is suspected that a small storm slab avalanche stepped down to the deeply buried November crust; this may have occurred on Sunday.
Snowpack Summary
Light amounts of new snow have fallen over the past few days. I expect that this new snow will be well settled and moist on all but shaded aspects in the alpine. Changing winds may have developed some thin new wind slabs on several aspects. Lower elevations are experiencing a melt-freeze cycle and the snowpack is likely moist or wet throughout its entire thickness. A deep persistent weak layer is still lingering near the bottom of the snowpack in all areas.
Problems
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.