Regions
Northwest Coastal.
Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Drizzle in the valley will bring another 3-5 cm to higher elevations on Sunday night. The wind is expected to decrease to about 30 km/hr at the ridge tops by Monday morning. Some light snowfall accumulating a couple more cm on Monday until about noon around Terrace. Smithers is expected to be quite a bit drier; Sunday night and Monday precipitation combined should only be about 5 cm. Temperatures are expected to drop to about -15 in the alpine by Tuesday morning as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. Wednesday is expected to be mostly clear, but not as cold as Tuesday. The next system should be on the coast by Thursday. There may be some strong outflow winds on Tuesday afternoon as cooler air moves out towards the Pacific.
Avalanche Summary
Widespread avalanche activity along the highway corridors. Size was limited due to storm and avalanche cycle earlier in the week. Size 4.0 natural on Mt Rainey ran to valley bottom adjacent to Stewart Town site. Widespread natural activity in the Shames area, possibly up to size 3.0 in the "Valley of Doom". Due to poor visibility we do not have any observations from alpine terrain.
Snowpack Summary
Very heavy precipitation on Saturday night brought at least 40 cm to lower elevations, and probably 60-80 cm in the alpine. Very strong southwest winds have probably transported this new storm snow into thick windslabs and storm slabs. This new storm layer is sitting on top of a storm layer from earlier in the week that did not have a lot of time to settle and strengthen. A relatively thin layer of surface hoar or facets was reportedly buried New Year's day - this may have been the focus of some of the storm snow releases during the current storm; however, I suspect this layer will settle out quite rapidly. Lower down, it is still possible to find a surface hoar/crust/facet combo from mid-December. I suspect it would take a very heavy trigger such as a cornice fall to trigger this layer now, although if you are traveling in an unusually shallow snowpack area I'd still be cautious of it. The lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.