Avalanche forecast

Northwest Inland

Apr 12 – 13, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
No rating
Treeline
No rating
Below
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Highlights

When the sun comes out on Wednesday, expect lots of solar triggered sluffing on steep slopes. Thin new wind slabs may be reactive in leeward features in the alpine.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    New snowfall and strong southerly winds likely formed thin new wind slabs in the alpine on Tuesday. These slabs will overlie a firm melt-freeze crust which may increase the slab reactivity and likelihood of triggering.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–5
    The timing of failures is unpredictable. Unsupported sections are extra suspicious. Dropping chunks are a hazard in themselves and they may also trigger a slab avalanche on the slopes below. Watch and limit your exposure to overhead hazards.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Loose wet sluffing is expected on steep slopes when the sun is out. The recent snowfall will be sliding on a firm crust which will likely increase the distance sluffs can travel.

Snowpack Summary

The new snowfall will bury a widespread melt-freeze crust. Strong southerly winds in the alpine will have likely formed thin wind slabs. The region should return to melt-freeze conditions on Wednesday with surface crusts forming overnight and breaking down during the day. The snowpack's strength is directly related to the thickness and strength of these surface crusts. A widespread crust/facet layer from early February and depth hoar at the bottom of the snowpack are dormant. Cycles of melting and refreezing have limited the reactivity of these old layers. However these layers, or the ground, could potentially once again be the layer for an isolated yet large avalanche with prolonged periods of warming.

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud is expected for Wednesday and Thursday with light southerly winds in the alpine and afternoon freezing levels around 1500-1600m. Mainly cloudy conditions are expected for Friday with the possibility of light showers. Alpine winds are forecast to be moderate from the southwest with afternoon freezing levels around 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

On both Sunday and Monday, loose wet avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported in the far north of the region. With the arrival of spring, field observations and data have become very limited in the region. A lack of avalanche reports does not mean avalanches are not occurring. On Wednesday, newly formed wind slabs are expected to be reactive to human-triggering in the alpine. Widespread solar triggered loose sluffing is expected with the new snow sliding on the firm crust layer. Cornices have been weak recently and may fail naturally with storm loading.

Regions covered