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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2012–Dec 15th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Saturday: Light snowfalls overnight as a ridge of high pressure remains over the region. Strong Southwest winds tonight becoming very strong as an upper trough moves into the region during the day. Expect 15-20 cms during the afternoon and evening on Saturday.Sunday: Another weaker pulse of precipitation is expected to be combined with moderate to strong Southwest winds. Freezing levels should remain at valley bottoms.Monday: A strong frontal system will cross the region spreading moderate to heavy precipitation. Freezing levels may rise to just above valley bottoms. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported for this region. Due to our limited observations for this region at this time, your avalanche observations are welcome at [email protected]

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs should grow slightly tonight in specific areas (Easterly aspects) in the alpine and at treeline with the forecasted light precipitations, moderate winds and the older snow available for transport. The new snow is also burying some older slightly deeper windslabs in sheltered areas. Overall, the top and mid-snowpack is reported to be settling well. The deep persistent instabilities (surface hoar and early November crust) located in the middle and near the bottom of the snowpack are still a concern in this region, however, it is important to know that we have very limited observations for this region at this time. Digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection. Any observations from the field are welcome at [email protected].

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.