Rain on Monday will continue the avalanche cycle. Will be hard to find any good skiing until we get back into classic spring melt freeze conditions.
Weather Forecast
The freezing level will be around tree-line overnight. Overcast on Monday with light rain and freezing level staying high. Similar conditions expected on Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
Snow conditions are isothermal below 2200m, warm snowpack into the Alpine even on Northerly facing aspects. Persistent slab present at tree line and above. The snowpack at all elevations has a weak base and several mid-pack weaknesses. Many areas below tree line are under threshold especially lower elevations and southerly aspects.
Avalanche Summary
A widespread avalanche cycle continues (beginning on Thursday). Point releases and wet slab avalanches to size 3 running at all elevations primarily on solar aspects. Fewer slides are occurring on northerly terrain. Ice climbs are cracking and collapsing because of the warm temps.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.