Solar radiation and a poor overnight freeze will likely contribute to large avalanche on Friday. If it hasn't slid yet, it may tomorrow resulting in a large avalanche. If you go out, be out and back early while its still cold and avoid big terrain.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday
Weather Forecast
Weather on Thursday night is calling for mainly cloudy and then on friday, the sun is expected to come out... This means we will only have a minimal freeze likely overnight and strong solar radiation on Friday. No new snow is forecast and freezing levels will be around 2300m.
Avalanche Summary
A few loose wet slides were observed early in the day. When the sun came out we had reports of sz 2 and 3 avalanches almost within a few min's of its affect being noticed. These occurred mainly on solar aspects.
Snowpack Summary
The clouds held the heat in all day and temps at 2200m reached almost +10C. The upper snowpack is rapidly settling and becomming isothermal in some areas (lower elevations). The rapid settling is beginning to overload some of the basal interfaces and triggerring what will likely be the climax avalanche cycle of the season. We should expect paths that have not yet slid to now start to release as large destructive avalanches. These avalanches are/will likely fail on the weak basal layers down near the ground. The sun is having a large impact on stability in terms of when it comes out, the solar radiation rapidly decreases the stability and natural avalancehs occur. If you wanna start really early you may be able to hang onto the crusts for a few hours but start really early.... And be home early also...
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.