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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 20th, 2017–Feb 21st, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

A few very large natural avalanches have run to valley floor in the past 12hrs. Cautious route selection is advised, and be aware of overhead hazard.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Up to 5cm of new snow may fall tonight. Tuesday will be mainly cloudy with Alpine temperatures near -8 C. Winds will be light from the West. Another wave of precipitation is expected on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

A few naturally triggered slab avalanches between size 2.5 and 3.0 have occurred in the past 12hrs. These slabs ranged between 30 and 70cm deep, occurred in steep Alpine terrain on East or South-East aspects, and ran to valley floor.

Snowpack Summary

15cm of new snow in the past 24hrs, brings recent storm snow totals to 20 to 25cm at Treeline. The storm snow has minimal wind effect below 2500m, and overlies a temperature crust on all aspects below 2100m, and up to 2300m on solar aspects. Moist snow on solar aspects by early in the afternoon. Snow profile at Treeline today confirms a dense midpack overlying a very weak base. Snowpack stability tests indicate a concerning failure within the basal weak layers. Although these results were in the 'hard' range, the possibility for a full depth avalanche is very real.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.