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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2016–Feb 27th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Spring like warming by day and colder temperatures at night. The snowpack is gaining strength for most part but large avalanches (up to size3) are still being observed in isolated alpine slopes.  Forecasters are avoiding shallow rocky snowpack areas.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure will break down and small amounts of precipitation are forecast.  Cloudy conditions with light flurries for Saturday and the freeze level will rise to 1900 meters.  Winds will be moderate from the west with gusts up 60km/h.

Avalanche Summary

The warm air and clear skies from the last 2 days have introduced solar heat input and has caused a small loose wet avalanche cycle on solar aspects yesterday and today. The loose wet avalanches in a few cases triggered a size 2 slab on a high south facing alpine feature. Another size 3 avalanche that went to glacier ice was observed today on the NE face of Mount Robertson. It's unclear what the exact trigger was but recent daytime heating and/or cornice failure was the likely culprit.

Snowpack Summary

Spring conditions are beginning to influence the snowpack. Solar and melt-freeze crusts can be found on all solar aspects and temperature crusts to 2100 meters. The upper snowpack has a buried melt-freeze crust, the February 11th crust has not been reactive in snowpack tests but may possibly be responsible for some recent slab avalanche activity. The January 6th facets are still lurking about 60-70cm below the surface and generally showing non results in snowpack tests. The snowpack temperature gradient is showing rounding taking place which indicates strengthening in upper treeline and alpine elevations. Lower treeline and below treeline where the snowpack is less than 100 cm is still weak but semi-supportive because of recent temperature crusts which carry a skier's weight.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.