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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2015–Feb 15th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Isothermal snowpack and warm temps are wreaking havoc on the snowpack.  Cold temps will need to penetrate the snowpack for a day before stability begins to improve.  Avoid the bigger terrain features.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels are forecast to start dropping overnight back down to the valley floors by tomorrow.  It will take some time for the heat to be squeezed out of the snowpack by the cooler temperatures so danger levels will still remain elevated for Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

No new observations were seen on Saturday but field teams were out of the field by 13:00hrs.  Prior to this time, skies were obscured and visibility was limited.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is isothermal up to 1950m.  Above this there is a crust from the recent heat on all aspects up to 2200m then only on solar aspects up to 2600-2700m.  Easy to moderate sheers persist within the upper snowpack down 30-40cm.  Extended column tests also indicate that this layer is prone to wide propagations.  The Jan 31st interface is down 70-80cm but the bond at this interface seems to be improving.  The basal layers in the snowpack area still weak and any avalanche that is triggerred will likely step down to these basal layers.  THroughout the past 24hrs, 10-15cmof new snow has fallen via convective flurries.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.