Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Feb 14 – 15, 2015Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Isothermal snowpack and warm temps are wreaking havoc on the snowpack.  Cold temps will need to penetrate the snowpack for a day before stability begins to improve.  Avoid the bigger terrain features.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    2–5
    Any wind affected area in alpine terrain and gullied, and crossloaded features at treeline.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Cornices have grown over the past week.  Many have collapsed and caused large avalanches on the underlying slopes.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–6
    Avalanches in the upper snowpack are stepping down and waking up the deeper basal layers.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels are forecast to start dropping overnight back down to the valley floors by tomorrow.  It will take some time for the heat to be squeezed out of the snowpack by the cooler temperatures so danger levels will still remain elevated for Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

No new observations were seen on Saturday but field teams were out of the field by 13:00hrs.  Prior to this time, skies were obscured and visibility was limited.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack is isothermal up to 1950m.  Above this there is a crust from the recent heat on all aspects up to 2200m then only on solar aspects up to 2600-2700m.  Easy to moderate sheers persist within the upper snowpack down 30-40cm.  Extended column tests also indicate that this layer is prone to wide propagations.  The Jan 31st interface is down 70-80cm but the bond at this interface seems to be improving.  The basal layers in the snowpack area still weak and any avalanche that is triggerred will likely step down to these basal layers.  THroughout the past 24hrs, 10-15cmof new snow has fallen via convective flurries.

Regions covered