Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Mar 18 – 19, 2014Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 13 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Conditions remain ripe for human triggering of avalanches.  Watch for the effects of daytime heating along or above travel routes. A spike in Avalanche danger is possible by Thursday with incoming snowfall and winds.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    2–4
    Fresh wind slabs are found on lee and cross loaded features at treeline and above.  If these slabs are triggered an avalanche could step down to the Feb 10th layer or even deeper and produce a large avalanche. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–5
    This persistent weak layer is buried 70 to 100cm in Alpine and Treeline areas and is sensitive to human triggering. There is increasing potential for failure deeper in the snowpack as the weather warms!

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Becoming loose moist on steep solar aspects in PM.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Mainly clear skies tonight with Low -11 deg.  Winds west 35km/h.Wednesday - Trace of precip forecast with daytime high -5 deg.  Winds west 35 gusting to 60 km/h.  Looking forward to 15-20cm snow on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry on N-NE aspects to Size 1 observed. Later in PM loose dry were becoming loose moist on steep rocky aspects triggering SSL to Size 1 on steeper planar slopes below.One Size 2.5 full depth slab release on steep NE aspect triggered by cornice failure. Failure plane was ground and ran full path to Smith-Dorrien creek bottom. Max depth in excess of 1 meter deep, up to 100m Wide and 300m in length. Daytime heating may be awakening the deep basal weakness.

Snowpack Summary

New suncrust beginning to form on steep solar exposed slopes. Storm snow is settling and bonding to previous surface but some concern related to windslab development still.

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