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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 18th, 2014–Mar 19th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Conditions remain ripe for human triggering of avalanches.  Watch for the effects of daytime heating along or above travel routes. A spike in Avalanche danger is possible by Thursday with incoming snowfall and winds.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Mainly clear skies tonight with Low -11 deg.  Winds west 35km/h.Wednesday - Trace of precip forecast with daytime high -5 deg.  Winds west 35 gusting to 60 km/h.  Looking forward to 15-20cm snow on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry on N-NE aspects to Size 1 observed. Later in PM loose dry were becoming loose moist on steep rocky aspects triggering SSL to Size 1 on steeper planar slopes below.One Size 2.5 full depth slab release on steep NE aspect triggered by cornice failure. Failure plane was ground and ran full path to Smith-Dorrien creek bottom. Max depth in excess of 1 meter deep, up to 100m Wide and 300m in length. Daytime heating may be awakening the deep basal weakness.

Snowpack Summary

New suncrust beginning to form on steep solar exposed slopes. Storm snow is settling and bonding to previous surface but some concern related to windslab development still.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.