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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 28th, 2014–Dec 29th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Not much is changing out there right now.  Lower elevations are still pretty rugged.  We are seeing some improvement in the higher elevations but bottom line, it hasnt snowed in a while! Got to love the Rockies!!!

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Well, no new snow is in the forecast for the next while and the drought will likely continue.  Light to moderate NW winds will keep temps cool and air dry...

Avalanche Summary

Only loose dry avalanches have been observed over the past few days. There has been no recent slab avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Not too much is changing out there.  There is a prominent rain crust in the upper snowpack knows as the Dec 13th crust.  Easy-Moderate sheers are persisting on the top of this crust on a thin layer of facets or isolated surface hoar. The mid pack seems really variable depending on where we are.  In some areas its been good and well settled and in others weak and facetted.  We find ourselves digging and poking around a lot seeking out these differences as we try to gain confidence.  At the base of the snowpack its the usual rockies garbage.  Weak and facetted depth hoar and facets.  The nov crust is showing signs of breaking down.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.