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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2015–Jan 29th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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There is still some uncertainty regarding potential persistent slab east of the crest. Snow pits may help determine if this layer is still present or reactive in your area.

Detailed Forecast

Partly cloudy weather with a slight chance of a few light rain showers should be seen this evening to Thursday morning. Most areas will see no precipitation. Decreasing clouds should be seen Thursday afternoon and night. Winds will be light with a slow warming trend.

This weather will cause little change in snow conditions and an overall low danger.

The main limited avalanche problem to watch for should be loose wet avalanches. Watch for wet snow deeper than a few inches on steep solar slopes. But the likelihood and size will be listed as unlikely and small respectively.

Warm weather and recent rain should be causing persistent weak layers from January 15th to become less reactive. This problem will be listed for the northeast and central east zones as unlikely and near and below treeline. Snow pits may help determine if this layer is still present or reactive in your area. A persistent layer is not expected in the southeast zone.

Due to the low snowpack at lower elevations watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

Snowpack Discussion

Last weekend a warm front caused high snow levels and rain east of the crest though less rain than west of the crest. NWAC sites east of the crest had up to an 1 inch of rain. Generally mild or warm weather and some sun has been Sunday to today.

Recent Observations: The Mission Ridge ski patrol on Sunday reported that depth hoar at 45 cm below the surface was becoming rounded but still failed on isolation.

NWAC pro-observer Jeff Ward was at Sugarloaf Mountain a little east of Plain on Monday. He found snow cover lacking on most slopes. The buried January 15th facet/crust layer was about 12 cm below the surface and produced a SC in a test but stuck to the bed surface. Here is his video:

NWAC pro-observer Tom Curtis was at Dirty Face Peak north of Lake Wenatchee on Tuesday and found the January 15th buried facet/crust layer about 50 cm below the surface, It was also not reactive to tests. He also ski triggered some small loose wet avalanches. Here is his video:

The North Cascade Mountain Guides were in the Silver Star area on Tuesday and found the January 15th facet/crust layers at 40 cm below the surface which produced moderate SC tests but blocks also stuck the bed surface so propagation seemed unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.