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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2015–Feb 18th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Mt Hood.

Low avalanche danger is expected in all elevation bands on Wednesday, although isolated and small loose wet avalanches remain possible on steeper solar slopes. 

Detailed Forecast

A weak front will approach the area on Wednesday with an increase in high clouds beginning overnight. There should be a gradual cooling trend through the day, but an increase in clouds overnight and warm temperatures could inhibit a good re-freeze.

On Wednesday, small loose wet avalanches will be unlikely and only potentially found in isolated areas near and below treeline. 

As a result of the overall low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

Snowpack Discussion

Warm and wet southwest flow directed a series of fronts across the Northwest from about February 5th-10th.This brought less rain to Mt. Hood compared to areas in the WA Cascades but aided in further snowpack melt at lower elevations. The last weather system in the series crossed the south Cascades a week ago. This caused strong winds and deposited 15 inches of new snow at 6600 feet at Mt Hood Meadows. Warmer temperatures at Mt Hood over the last week have allowed the most recent storm snow to settle and stabilize. 

NWAC pro-observer CJ Svela was at Timberline on Friday and found possible small loose wet avalanche conditions on solar slopes. He also found stable melt forms and rounded grains in the upper snowpack. 

The Meadows pro-patrol reported a good refreeze of surface snow Monday and Tuesday morning along with no recent avalanche activity.

The mid and lower snowpack at Mt Hood should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.