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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 25th, 2014–Mar 26th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

New snow at higher elevations or rain amounts and solar effects are hard to predict on Wednesday. Remember to evaluate snow and terrain carefully on Wednesday.

Detailed Forecast

A weakening upper low from the Gulf of Alaska will move to the Northwest on Wednesday. The main rain or snow should be over Oregon. In the Olympics and Washington Cascades this should cause mostly light showers and cool temperatures. Some consolidation and cooler temperatures should slightly lower the avalanche danger from Tuesday to Wednesday. But new snow at higher elevations or rain amounts and solar effects are hard to predict on Wednesday. Remember to evaluate snow and terrain carefully on Wednesday.

Any additional rain or snow and late March solar effects should make wet snow conditions and wet loose avalanches possible mainly near and below treeline on Wednesday. Watch for wet surface snow deeper than a few inches, roller balls in surface snow and small natural wet loose releases that usually precede more major wet loose snow avalanches.

New or recent small areas of wind slab should also be possible Wednesday mainly above treeline on lee slopes. Watch for signs of cracking or firmer wind transported snow.

Snowpack Discussion

A cold front crossed the Northwest Wednesday last week. This system produced more snow in the Cascades with the Hurricane Ridge weather station recording only about 4 inches of new snow at low temperatures and with generally light winds. On Friday afternoon NWAC observer Katy Reid denser wind slab on N thru SE near treeline that was stubborn in stability tests and did not note in any recent avalanches.

Warmer weather with increasing sun was seen Saturday to Monday. On Sunday Katy reported numerous small to large wet loose avalanches on solar aspects but dry loose avalanches on due north aspects at higher elevations.  She also found wind slab in the limited above treeline zone near Hurricane Ridge to be prone to snow pit test failures down 20 cm at a melt freeze crust on the colder N-NE aspects.

A front is crossing the Northwest on Tuesday causing mostly light to locally moderate rain and snow. In the Cascades NWAC observer Dallas Glass at Snoqualmie reports wet snow conditions, roller balls and a small triggered wet loose avalanche. The Mt Baker and Alpental patrols report softening surface crusts over wet snow.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.