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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 1st, 2012–Dec 2nd, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A broad and persistent low pressure center off the BC coast and a steady southwesterly flow over the province will maintain mild temperatures and light to moderate precipitation for the next few days.Sunday: Light to locally moderate snowfall – 5-10 cm, the freezing level is around 800 m, winds are light from the south. Monday: Light snowfall – 5-10 cm, the freezing level is around 800 m, winds are light to moderate from the southwest. Tuesday: Moderate precipitation, the freezing level should jump to 1200-1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

There was one report late last week of a size 2.5 natural avalanche that likely released on the early November persistent weak layer. There are no other recent observations. We welcome all observations at [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

A recently buried surface hoar layer is now down around 30-50 cm. We have limited information on the extent and sensitivity of this layer in this region. Watch for clues of instability like whumpfing or cracking and recent avalanches. There may be another thin buried surface hoar layer down about 115 cm. As well, the November rain crust now exists over 125cm down in some locations and may exist in combination with facets. These layers seems to have been unreactive in recent days, but may have the potential to 'wake-up' with additional loading.Average snow depths at treeline seem to be between 140cm and 170cm. In general, snowpack data is sparse in this region and significant variations likely exist from one drainage to another. In short, digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection. Any observations from the field are welcome at [email protected].

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.