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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2014–Feb 16th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Rockies.

A series of new storms with very strong winds are expected to move quickly across the province over the next few days. Keep in touch with the Bulletins and blogs for up to date information.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Sunday: 5-10 cm of snow beginning Saturday night or early Sunday morning. The snow is expected to be combined with very strong Southwest winds. The freezing level is expected to drop during the precipitation to about 1000 metres.Monday: Another pulse of 5-10 cm of snow combined with very strong Southwest winds. Freezing level rising during the storm to about 1500 metres. Tuesday: A bit of a break in the morning, with the next pulse of moisture and wind expected to start late in the day.

Avalanche Summary

Skiers remotely triggered a size 2.0 avalanche in the storm snow on a South aspect in the alpine. I suspect that the storm slab is settling and becoming more cohesive. Forecast new snow and wind loading are expected to add a new load to this recent storm slab that may increase the sensitivity to human triggers and may result in natural avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Over the last few days 30-50cm has been deposited across the region. South westerly winds have built reactive slabs 40- 80cm thick, on lee north and east aspects at upper elevations. Recent snowpack tests show sudden and easy results, indicating that storm slabs are not bonding well to underlying layers - these include; old hard slabs in the alpine, sun crusts, and several sandwiched layers of facets and surface hoar. The mid snowpack is strong and supportive. A deep persistent layer of facets and depth hoar near the base of the snowpack has remained dormant to this point, but may become a concern with additional load and stress on the snowpack.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.