Confidence
Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
Overnight and Saturday: The second of three waves of precipitation is expected to make its way to the interior by early morning. Expect 8-12 cms of new snow to fall above 2200 metres elevation combined with moderate winds gusting to strong from the Southwest. Alpine temperatures should drop to about -6.0 overnight and rise to -3.0 during the day.Sunday: Expect a slight cooling trend in the wake of the second wave. The third wave of precipitation should move into the interior by the afternoon, combined with light Southerly winds.Monday: Conditions should start to dry out in the wake of the third wave of precipitation.
Avalanche Summary
Loose wet slides continue to fall out of steep terrain.
Snowpack Summary
The classic melt freeze cycle has come to an end with cloud and warm temps preventing a good refreeze in most of the forecast region. Along with the solar aspects, previously dry north facing zones in the alpine are also now moist. A buried rain crust can be found down 25-50 cm and exists up to around 2100 m. Larger triggers such as a loose wet slide, or cornice fall may cause this layer to fail. Snow may be isothermal on south facing aspects in the alpine/treeline and on all aspects below treeline.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.