The hazard will be on the increase today. Denser snow will be accumulating upon colder faceted snow, temperatures will be increasing and strong winds will be drifting the new snow. This scenario will create unstable conditions on steep slopes. Soft slab avalanches and loose snow sluffs are expected to be sensitive to human triggers. A cautious approach to terrain, to the increasing hazard and the shallow snow conditions is warranted. Even small avalanches can have severe consequences due to the obstacles, like rocks and stumps.
At the higher elevations strong west to southwest winds will create soft slabs 6 to 18 inches in depth. These slabs could be triggered by skiers or riders in steep wind loaded avalanche starting zones. At the mid and lower elevations loose snow sluffs and isolated pockets of wind slab up to a foot in depth could be human triggered on very steep slopes.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )A winter storm warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for Teton County and the Absaroka Mountains until noon on Saturday. The remainder of the forecast area remains under a winter weather advisory. Periods of moderate to heavy snowfall will be accompanied by increasing temperatures and winds. New snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are possible overnight. Another 6 to 10 inches are possible in the mountains on Friday. Temperatures will rise into the 20s in the mountains and into the 30s in the lowest valleys. West-southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 miles per hour with gusts in the 30s along the higher ridge crests.The incoming snow will be upside down (denser, warmer snow over lighter, dryer snow) and is not expected to bond well to the underlying cold, faceted snow. This scenario will be exasperated by strong winds that will create unstable conditions and an increasing avalanche hazard. The general avalanche hazard is expected to increase to MODERATE at the upper elevations. The danger will be most prominent on steep, north facing slopes above an elevation of 9,000 feet where strong west-southwest winds will create new wind slabs up to two feet in depth on a base of weak, faceted snow. These wind slabs are likely to become increasingly sensitive to human triggers as they gain depth and volume during the day. The general hazard at the lower elevations is expected to LOW but also on the increase. Evaluate terrain, monitor conditions and avoid areas of concern. Even small avalanches can have severe consequences in shallow snow conditions.
