Avalanche forecast

Southern San Juan

Colorado Avalanche Information Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

Avalanche Summary

You could trigger an avalanche on steep slopes where cohesive slabs of snow sit above weaker snow. The most dangerous slopes are at upper elevations and face northwest to north to northeast. Look for and avoid trigger points, like shallow spots in the snowpack near rock outcroppings, below cliff bands, or on steep convex rolls. If you observe cracking or collapsing, reevaluate your plan and move to a lower angle or lower elevation slope. You can reduce your risk of triggering an avalanche by sticking to slopes less than about 35 degrees in steepness.

Warm temperatures and strong sunshine increase the chances of wet avalanches. Small pinwheels and rollerballs are an early warning sign to move towards shadier terrain. Avoid traveling on or under steep sunny slopes, especially later in the day when warming reaches its peak.

On February 20, a backcountry snowboarder was caught and killed in an avalanche on a terrain feature locally known as The Nose in the Middle Fork of Mineral Creek drainage, west of the town of Silverton. The avalanche occurred near treeline on a northeast-facing slope in the San Juan Mountains. You can read the preliminary accident report here.

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