Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Jan 15 – 16, 2012Avalanche Canada
View on map
Archived · expired 15 years ago

Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Conditions are variable across the region. The Flathead and southern Elk Valley may have similar conditions to the Lizard Range at present (so check the Lizard Range bulletin too).

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–4
    While old wind slabs appear to be gaining strength, new ones may form quickly if the the wind picks up again.
  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–6
    Surface hoar buried in December is up to 90 cm below the snow surface. Triggering this layer has become less likely and isolated to steep, shallow rocky start zones; however the destructive potential is high.
  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Up to 40cm of dry new snow may sluff easily in steep terrain. It could knock you off your feet or carry you into a terrain trap.

Avalanche Summary

Skiers triggered small pockets of wind slab and heard some rumbling yesterday, but visibility remained poor for observations. A smattering of avalanches involving persistent weak layers occurred throughout the region earlier in the week, on north-east aspects at treeline and above.

Confidence

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertainfor the entire period

Weather Forecast

Monday: Mainly light snowfall starting in the afternoon. Winds picking up to strong south-westerlies. Tuesday: Some lingering flurries possible. Cold.Wednesday: Light to moderate snowfall. Moderate to strong south-westerly winds. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack in the South Rockies region varies considerably at present, with the Southern Elk Valley and Flathead Ranges close in nature to the Lizard Range. Near the Crowsnest, it's been drier and more consistently windy. Castle Mountain has been having its own little party and getting locally heavy snowfall. Anywhere from 4-30cm of new snow has fallen, redistributed by strong south-westerly winds into soft and hard wind slabs on lee slopes, followed by further snowfall with no wind. Old wind slabs appear to be gaining strength, however new ones could form quickly if the wind picks up again. Besides new storm/wind-related concerns, the layer we're still watching in the region is a surface hoar layer buried in early December. It's down about 85cm in the Flathead and exhibits hard, sudden planar/full propagation results, meaning that's it's stubborn to trigger but could create a large avalanche if triggered.At the bottom of the snowpack a variable facet/crust/facet sandwich is located with depth hoar up to size 5mm below the crust, and facets size 2mm above. There has been little in the way of recent activity on basal layers.

Regions covered