Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Regions
South Coast.
Continued warm temperatures should allow the snowpack to further settle and stabilize, but small storm slabs in more extreme terrain may still be an issue. Watch for the odd loose wet avalanche on steep solar aspects in the afternoon too.
Confidence
High -
Weather Forecast
This week will see a complete reversal in the weather pattern as warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected to dominate. Warmer air aloft will prevail as an off shore upper ridge pushes inland and the flow aloft switches from cold northwesterly to mild southwesterly. This warm dry period is expected to persist through Friday.TUESDAY: A few clouds in the morning, cloud cover increasing to overcast by the afternoon, Freezing level around 2700 m with alpine temperatures approaching +5 C, light southwest wind, no snow expected.WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud, freezing level around 2500 m with alpine temperatures up to +5 C, light southwest wind, no snow expected.THURSDAY: Scattered cloud, freezing level around 2500 m, light southwest wind, no snow expected.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche activity was reported over the weekend, but we did get a great Mountain Information Network (MIN) report from Saturday. Warming temperatures on Monday may have initiated a round of natural loose wet avalanches as the formerly cold snow was introduced to heat for the first time.
Snowpack Summary
Two successive storms produced 40 to 80 cm of snow over the last week. On Monday temperatures warmed dramatically. As of 14:00 on January 1st the Deeks Peak weather station (1280 m) was reporting +2.5 c, Mt. Strachan (1420 m) was reporting +4 c. These warm temperatures combined with Friday night's rain event should allow the entire snowpack to settle and stabilize. Forecast warm temperatures through the week should allow for further settlement.Wind effect in the alpine has been widely reported but wind slab activity has been limited to isolated terrain features with one or more of the following characteristics; steep, unsupported and/or convex. 50 to 100 cm below the surface there are a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December. This layer has not produced much in the way of avalanche activity and is likely trending towards dormancy. Beneath the mid-December crust, the lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.The snowpack depth is about 160 cm at 1000 m, 220 cm at 1250 m. Many early season hazards are still present at lower elevations.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.