Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Feb 5 – 6, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

At this point in the storm the serious problem exists where the precipitation is falling as snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–5
    Natural avalanches likely remain an issue above 2000m. This activity may creep down to treeline with a drop in temps. You may see the odd loose wet avalanche below treeline, but I suspect the low elevation snowpack will just soak up the rain.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

The forecast period features a sustained freezing level around 2000m, strong to extreme SW winds and significant precipitation. 25 to 40mm are expected Thursday night, 20 to 30mm Friday and another 15 to 20mm Saturday. Visit avalanche.ca/weather for a comprehensive look at this dynamic weather pattern.

Avalanche Summary

No significant avalanche activity to report form Wednesday. I suspect that there should be plenty to report from Thursday, assuming there's enough visibility to see!

Snowpack Summary

The storm initially produced 5 - 15 cm of new snow before switching to rain mid morning. Temperatures had warmed to 0 C at 1900m by early afternoon. This snow/rain combo is likely saturating the 10 to 30cm of new snow that overlies a hard rain crust which exists up to at least 2100m. Strong to extreme west/southwest winds are likely shifting the remaining cold snow at upper elevations into wind slabs. Deeper snowpack weaknesses have become unreactive on account of the strong capping crust layer. We'll be watching the strength/temperature of this capping layer closely through the weekend.

Regions covered