Touchy conditions exist in the North of the region with the potential for large and destructive avalanches.
Weather Forecast
Monday Night: Convective precipitation amounts are hard to pin down. The region could see 5cm to as much as 15cm above 1000m with very little wind.Tuesday: Scattered convective flurries. Freezing level rising to 1700m in the late afternoon. Light NW winds at all elevations.Wednesday: Winds out of the SW begin to pick up as warm air floods into the region. Look for light SW winds at treeline, potentially strong SW winds at ridgetop. Freezing level should climb to 2000m by late afternoon. 2 to 4mm of rain possible.Thursday: 1 to 5mm of rain. Light SW winds at treeline, strong W/SW winds at ridgetop. Freezing level starting the day at 2000m, climbing to 3000m by the afternoon.
Avalanche Summary
Over the past week, there have been a number of avalanches to size 2.5 occurring on the March 11 persistent weak layer. Some avalanches have occurred naturally, or remotely from distances of up to 100m. Hot spots for avalanche activity seem to include the Duffey Lake area, the Birkenhead drainage, the Hurley and the South Chilcotins. Snow and wind on Monday night will likely add a round of wind slab activity to the mix. But it will also add load to the March layer, potentially adding to its reactivity and destructive potential.
Snowpack Summary
New wind slabs have formed in response to recent wind, snowfall and warm temperatures. At lower elevations, rain has saturated the snowpack. Cornices may also be fragile. A touchy crust/facet persistent weak layer, buried up to 60 cm down, has been reactive producing easy test results at upper treeline and alpine elevations, especially in the north of the region (see avalanche summary). Avalanche problems associated with this layer may linger for a while with the potential for surprisingly large and destructive avalanches. Below this, the snowpack is reported to be generally well-settled and strong.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.