Check daily for updates, as the weather forecast is highly uncertain at present. Avalanche danger ratings are likely to change as we receive updated information.
Confidence
Poor - Track of incoming weather is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: 5-10cm snow. Strong westerly winds. Freezing level at valley floor.Wednesday/Thursday: Weather models show very different outcomes. Anything's possible - from dry conditions to moderate (locally heavy) snowfall, with strong westerly winds and a slight rise in temperature. Confidence is poor. Check in tomorrow for an update.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, numerous avalanches were triggered by skiers and explosives. A few small, skier-triggered avalanches were reported on Sunday. They all failed in, or at the base of, the storm snow.
Snowpack Summary
Recent dry snow (10-30cm) fell with little wind and has not developed into a slab in most areas. However, this is likely to change quickly as the wind picks up again. Below this, older wind slabs are stubborn to trigger. A buried rain crust extends to about 1800m. Above this elevation, buried old surfaces include sastrugi and wind slab. Buried surface hoar is not a major concern in the upper snowpack as it is spotty in its distribution and may be isolated to a few sheltered drainages. Concern for lower snowpack layers has diminished and remains only in shallow snowpack areas. Facets associated with a crust from mid-December and/or sugary facets at the base of the snowpack may still be a concern in shallow areas. Fragile cornices are still lurking.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.