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RegisterFeb 27th, 2019–Feb 28th, 2019
Mt Hood.
Shallow new snow may hide recent large wind slabs which you can still trigger in higher elevation terrain. While large deep slab avalanches have not shown signs of activity in recent days, they still affect our terrain travel as we lack the data to rule them out. Choose well-supported terrain and avoid large open slopes where avalanches can start.
Winds have decreased following several periods of moderate to strong generally NE winds over the last 5 days. Winds freshened Tuesday, strong enough to continue transporting snow and building new fresh wind slabs. A previous round of fresh snow and strong NE winds Monday formed wind slabs on atypical aspects.
Snowstorms since last Friday night brought 2-3 ft of new snow to the Mt. Hood area. This created ample snow available for transport and excellent near and above treeline, generally right-side-up snow in wind-sheltered locations. A professional observation from the bluegrass ridge area found that wind slabs were not impacting the terrain below 5500 ft.
Prior to Sunday's new snow, professionals digging in the snow and looking for the 2/8 weak snow/crust combination in the Mt. Hood Meadows area were finding it roughly 4 feet down on N-E aspects and in a rather narrow elevation band around 5300’-6000'. While this is very useful and specific information, we can't extrapolate this to the larger Mt. Hood area to fine-tune the suspect aspects.
Temperatures have been very cold and while winds are expected to ease, be prepared the threat of frostbite or hypothermia remain.
With all the low-density snow piling up the risk of a Tree well/Snow immersion and Suffocation accident continues. Unfortunately, there was a tragic tree well/SIS fatality at the Timberline ski area on Saturday.
February 24th, 2019
The Status Quo
As we look at the avalanche conditions the phrase “Status Quo” keeps coming to mind. We use this term in the avalanche industry to note periods of no substantial changes, where observations continue to support the current avalanche danger, and our terrain use doesn’t appreciably change. We’ll look at recent avalanche conditions with this lens.
Avalanches
Following several large winter storms just prior to Valentine's Day, we saw very active avalanche conditions. With a few notable exceptions, most of the avalanche activity occurred more than a week ago. This lack of activity has allowed us to gain some confidence with the persistent weak layer buried on February 8th. You can see this reflected in the progression in the likelihood of persistent slab avalanches from “Likely,” to “Possible,” to “Unlikely.” The timing of this progression has been different depending on the zone.
The recent exceptions were two very large avalanches in the Crystal Mountain area on February 20th. During avalanche mitigation work, Crystal Mountain Ski Patrol triggered a slide on a SE aspect at 6300 ft in a less often skied portion of their ski area. On the same day, a skier triggered a persistent slab on a W aspect at 6300 ft in the backcountry adjacent to the ski area. Both were 3-4 ft deep. It’s hard to ignore these two obvious signs of instability.
Feb 20, 2019: SE 6300’: SS-AE-D3-R3-O. Photo: Crystal Mt Ski Patrol
Snowpack
Snow profiles and snowpack tests have been coming in from nearly every region. This is great! It helps us put together a more complete picture of the snowpack structure. Observers continue to report a layer of facets 2-5 feet below the snow surface and just above a crust. These facets are showing signs of rounding (gaining strength). In the past week, snowpack tests have become more variable. Some tests are indicating triggering an avalanche and crack propagation (necessary for a slab avalanche) are becoming less likely. That said, we are still seeing other tests that indicate that triggering deep persistent slabs remains a possibility. More tracking of this trend is needed to concretely illustrate the trend.
The Feb 8 facet layer is 3-5ft deep in the Snoqualmie Pass area. Photo: Susie Glass
Weather
Our recent weather systems have not been big water producers, especially by Cascade standards. However, the colder than normal temperatures have produced light, low-density snowfall. Wind transported snow have been the main driver of slab avalanches in the new snow. These storms have been large enough to keep the avalanche danger elevated, but not enough for major spikes in danger.
Recent low-density snow drifted by the wind to form fresh slabs Photo: Dallas Glass
Looking Ahead
At this point avalanches on persistent weak layers can’t be fully ruled out on specific aspects or elevations in most zones. Your chances of triggering an avalanche on a persistent weak layer are lower than they were on February 13th, but the change from day-to-day will remain slow and incremental. As a result, you’ve seen slow changes in the avalanche danger in most zones. Due to the serious consequences and the uncertainty that these avalanches present, we will continue to operate with a “Status Quo” mindset. Don’t let this lack of change lull you to sleep.
When will the conditions change? Not tomorrow, but possibly within the next week or two. Keep checking the forecast. Make sure to read the Snow and Avalanche Discussion and the Avalanche Problem text so you can stay up to date with any changes as they arise.