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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 11th, 2017–Feb 12th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Watch for and avoid lingering wind slabs near and above treeline, possible on easterly facing slopes below ridges. Watch for melting and weakening surface snow on steep sun exposed slopes where loose wet avalanches will be possible.

Detailed Forecast

Sunshine or filtered sunshine through high clouds is expected Sunday with significant warming.  

Watch for recent new wind slabs at higher elevations, especially below ridges in easterly facing terrain. Watch for any wind deposited snow, however, such as cross loaded slopes or specific terrain features. 

Sunshine and warm temperatures Sunday should make loose wet avalanches possible on steep southerly slopes facing the sun.    

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

A strong storm cycle last week deposited about 3 feet of snow at Hurricane Ridge. 

The nice snow didn't last long as a strong SSW storm brought heavy rain to the Olympics Wednesday and Thursday, with about 2 inches of water dumped at Hurricane Ridge through Thursday afternoon. Moderate showers and strong W-SW winds along with a cooling trend Friday deposited about 10 inches of snow at Hurricane Ridge through 6 pm Friday. 

Recent Observations

NWAC observer, Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge on Friday and found good skiing in non-wind affected areas well below ridges. Closer to the ridgeline, new wind slabs were quickly building on the lee easterly slopes up to 1 ft deep. These slabs were very sensitive to ski triggering with cracking readily observed on test slopes. One large loose wet avalanche was observed by the road crew Friday morning, with a few small trees in the 6-8 ft debris pile. Large cornices that had built on W-NW aspects earlier in the week were quickly being eroded by the strong W-SW winds.  

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.