Avalanche forecast

Uintas

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

In mid and upper elevation terrain, at and above treeline, you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous slide.

Lose some elevation, get out of the wind, and you lose much of the problem. Safer riding alternatives exist on low angle, lower elevation, wind sheltered slopes with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding. In terrain with these characteristics you'll find generally LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    4

    When I compile snowpack and avalanche information for the forecast I think not only about what kind of avalanche dragon I'm working with, but also the type of avalanche dragon that's going to kill me if I screw up. I then list these problems in their relevance to severity and consequence.

    So here's what I know... in most terrain it feels like we're starting to turn the corner where the snowpack is becoming thick and strong, and deep dangerous avalanches are becoming harder to trigger.

    I also know that all I need to do is find a shallow, weak portion of the snowpack, perhaps around a rock or bush that I can't see underneath the snow, collapse the slope (whoomph), and now I'm staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche. In addition, I know first hand from crawling around recent big avalanches that the common theme is they've occurred on steep, rocky, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes facing the north half of the compass, along with slopes that avalanched earlier this season and have a shallow snowpack.

    What I don't know... where exactly these weak points exist in the snowpack and whether or not I can trigger something that breaks to the ground.

    In this business, one of the keys to longevity is embracing the concept of avoiding bulls-eye terrain where unmanageable avalanche dragons live. So if there's uncertainty in the snowpack, I know I can still have a great day of riding safely by managing my terrain choices and simply steering away from steep, rocky slopes.

    It all looks white and even until we see what's underneath the snow we're riding on-

    We caught sight of this avalanche Thursday. While a bit older, perhaps occurring last Sunday or Monday, the natural slide in the image above was most likely triggered by cornice fall and fits the recent trend of avalanches breaking to the ground once initiated in steep, rocky terrain.

    Here's what our weak snow near the ground looks like and Cody's take... "4-6 mm Depth Hoar crystals found in our deep snowpit in the Humpy Creek drainage. Hard to trust a depth hoar snowpack even when buried this deep..."

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Surprisingly, winds have been unusually light and our forecast calls for more of the same today. However, don't let your guard down. Remember- the Uinta's are a big range and it never ceases to amaze me how even just a little bit of wind can find snow, channel it through terrain features, and form fresh drifts sensitive to our additional weight. While a few wind drifts may have formed along the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, you might find a rogue drift or two around a terrain feature like a chute or gully wall. In any case, today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum. (Scroggin image)

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    4

    Cornice are ginormous and may break back further than you might expect. And remember- several large, recent avalanches have been triggered with cornice fall. You definitely wanna give these large, unpredictable pieces of snow a wide berth and not ruin someones day below by inadvertently knocking a boxcar size piece of snow down on them.

    A piece of cornice releasing naturally, rolled down onto the slope below sometime early last Sunday morning, triggering this large slide that broke to weak snow near the ground. Approx 8' deep, 200' wide, and running 800' vertically, this avalanche occurred on a NE aspect at 10,300' at the upper reaches of Mill Fork of Chalk Creek. (Nalli images)

Special Announcement

The accident reports for the four avalanche fatalities are all finalized with some first-hand accounts and worth reading. We all have something to learn so that we can get home safely to our loved ones.

Jan 18 Electric Lake Accident (Skyline area)

Jan 25 Laurel Peak Accident (Moab area)

Feb 7 Circleville Mtn Accident (Southwest area near Beaver, UT)

Feb 9 Chalk Creek Accident (Western Uintas)

Many thanks to these fine gentlemen for helping to install our Beacon Basin on the north end of the Nobletts parking lot. While you're in the hood and waiting for your partner or group, you can keep warm and test your avalanche beacon rescue skills at the same time.... your partners will be stoked.

Recent Activity

Michael J found a shallow soft slab, sensitive to his additional weight yesterday, on a steep northerly slope in Weber Canyon. His insight on the current snowpack and avy conditions are found here.

Recent trip reports and avy activity found HERE.

Snow and Weather

The little gift that keeps on giving! Yesterday's storm over-produced, delivering an evenly distributed 6" of dense, spongy snow across the range. Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures this morning are slightly cooler than yesterday at this time, currently registering in the mid teens. West-southwest winds have been well-behaved and blow in the teens and low 20's along the high peaks.

Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.

Our main man Ted Scroggin took the sled for a rip along the Mirror Lake Highway yesterday and says... "These small storms have been slowly adding up with around 10" of nice medium density snow on the north slope. It has been a nice little re-set covering up many of the old hard tracks."

Additional Info

The active weather pattern continues for the next few days with another fast moving, but weak weather disturbance bringing light snow to our zone today through early Monday. Temperatures remain mild with highs in the upper 20's. Westerly winds blow in the 20's, but may bump into the 30's along the high peaks. A break in the action is slated for Tuesday with a stronger storm system ramping up for early Wednesday, continuing through late in the week.

General Announcements

The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Monday March 4th, 2019.

If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170

It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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