Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 days ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heavy snowfall and strong northwesterly winds are expected to continue for some time.

Large natural avalanches are likely where heavy snowfall and strong winds rapidly load slopes.

Stay well clear of avalanche paths and runout zones.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5

    Wind slab problems persist as heavy snowfall and strong NW winds continue this week.

    Over 1 m of new snow has fallen near the Main Divide. This snow fell onto well-developed near-surface facets, wind-pressed snow, and slick melt-freeze crusts, creating potential weak layers and poor bonding.

    Stay clear of avalanche paths and avoid travelling through or beneath avalanche terrain.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Loose wet avalanches are possible where rain falls onto fresh snow in the western part of the region, or where solar warming affects fresh snow in the eastern part.

    Stay clear of avalanche paths and avoid travelling beneath steep slopes.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Limited observations due to low cloud and ongoing precipitation. Widespread avalanche activity is expected.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Estimated snowfall exceeded 1 m above 1800 m at Tasman Saddle, accompanied by strong NW winds since Saturday. Snowfall amounts tapered to around 15 cm towards the eastern part of the region. Temperatures cooled on Sunday afternoon, with a dusting of snow reaching as low as 1000 m.

The new snow fell onto a variety of underlying surfaces, including wind-pressed snow, near-surface facets, and slick melt-freeze crusts. There is uncertainty about how well the new snow has bonded to these old surfaces.

Severe NW gales have stripped west-facing slopes and exposed ridges back to firm surfaces.

Mountain Weather

Showers.

Wind at 1000 metresNorthwesterly gale 65 km/h.

Wind at 2000 metresNorthwesterly severe gale 90 km/h.

Wind at 3000 metresWesterly severe gale 100 km/h.

Freezing level1100 metres, lifting to 1700 metres in the morning.

Sliding Danger

Firm snow conditions exist on west-facing slopes and near ridgelines due to strong winds. Ice axe and crampons are necessary for travel above the snowline.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.
  • We are uncertain due to rapidly changing freezing levels.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered